Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Trend and Variability Due to Climate Change in Bangladesh

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Mahabub, Ahmed Farhan
dc.contributor.author Prosun, Sakib Shadman
dc.date.accessioned 2020-10-18T16:52:15Z
dc.date.available 2020-10-18T16:52:15Z
dc.date.issued 2018-11-15
dc.identifier.citation 1) AC Kruger and MP Nxumalo.,2017: Climate Service, South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Pretoria, South Africa 2) Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2010) Census of Agriculture Bangladesh. Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Govt. of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. 3) Dore, M.H.I., 2005: Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know. Env. Internl., 31(8), 1167-1181. 4) Gemmer, M., Becker, S., and Jiang, T., 2004: Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 77, 39–45. 5) Hulme, M., Osborn, T.J., Johns, T.C., 1998: Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparison of observations with HADCM2 simulations. Geophy. Res. Let., 25, 3379–3382. 6) IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: R.K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, Eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 7) IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, Eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 8) IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P.J van der Linden and C. E. Hanson, Eds., Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 9) Kayano, M.T., and Sansígolo, C., 2008: Interannual to decadal variations of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures in southern Brazil. Theor.Appl.Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0050-4 10) Lambert, F., Stott, P., and Allen, M., 2003: Detection and attribution of changes in global terrestrial precipitation. Geophy. Res. Abs., 5, 06140 11) Mearns, L.O., Rosenzweig, C., and Goldberg, R., 1996: The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-wheat: a sensitivity study. Clim. Change, 32, 257–292 12) Mohammad Anisur Rahman, Sunny Mohammed Mostafa Kamal, Mohammad Maruf Billah. Prediction and Trends of Rainfall Variability over Bangladesh. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 5, No. 1, 2017, pp. 54-59. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20170501.18 13) Murat Karabulut, Mehmet Gűrbűz,Hüseyin Korkmaz. Precipitation and Temperature Trend Analyses in Samsun. J. Int. Environmental Application & Science,Vol. 3(5): 399-408 (2008) 14) P. Govinda Rao. Climatic changes and trends over a major river basin in India. CLIMATE RESEARCH Vol. 2: 215-223, 1993. 15) Radziejewski M, Kundzewicz ZW. 2004. Detectability of changes in hydrological records. Hydrological Sciences Journal 49(1): 39–51 16) Rodrı´guez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A.H., Nieto, S., Garmendia, J., 1998: Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. of Climatol., 18, 299–316 17) Rutherford., and Maarouf ., 2005: Standardized Precipitation Index Zones for México. Atmósfera vol.18 no.1 México ene. 2005 18) Shamsuddin Shahid.2010. Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology Int. J. Climatol. 30: 2299–2313 (2010) 19) Shamsuddin Shahid and Osman Salleh Khairulmaini O.S. (2009) Spatio-Temporal variability of Rainfall over Bangladesh during the time period 1969-2003, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 45 (3): 375-389. 20) Sabyasachi Swain, Manikant Verma, M.K. Verma(2016). Statistical trend analysis of monthly rainfall for Raipur district, Chattisgarh. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Studies 21) Sharad K. Jain and Vijay Kumar., Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee 247 667, India.National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 667, India (Now at Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi) 22) Yue S, Hashino M. 2003. Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. Journal of American Water Resources Association 39(3): 587–596. 23) Zaheed Hasan, Sabiha Akhter, Alamgir Kabir. Analysis of Rainfall Trends in the South-East Bangladesh. Journal of Environment (2014), Vol. 03, Issue 04, pp. 51-56. en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/542
dc.description Supervised by Prof. Dr. Md. Rezaul Karim en_US
dc.description.abstract Climate change is a dominant environmental factor that has been affecting Bangladesh by causing a significant shift in the rainfall trend of the country. Variation in quantities of precipitation is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. A study period from 1965-2015 has been taken in which daily rainfall records of 8 stations, distributed all over the country has been examined. The objective of the study is to analyse historic annual rainfall data of different locations from all over the country and observe the trend. These studies aim to understand the trend of change in rainfall patterns by analysing long term historical rainfall data, which then forms the basis of forecasting future scenarios. Seasonal and annual rainfall variation has been assessed. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope model is used to detect the trend and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. It has been observed that about 69% of rainfall occurs in the Monsoon season throughout the country. Monsoon and Post-Monsoon season shows a significant increasing trend whereas Pre-Monsoon and Dry season shows significant decrease. Mean annual rainfall is highest in Sylhet whereas Rajshahi has the least mean annual rainfall. It has been revealed that Khulna has a significant increase in mean annual rainfall trend. Annual mean rainfall in Bangladesh is found to be 2388 mm/year from this study. Moreover, a non-significant trend has been found in annual mean rainfall all over the country. Monthly mean and extreme event indices are also analyzed where the trend is decreasing for the extreme event. This study also aims to analyse some of the extreme rainfall indices using reliable, consistent and sufficient amount of rain gauge station data. Extreme rainfall analysis was also performed to study the changes in the intensity of extreme weather events. In case of annual, seasonal and extreme rainfall, most of the stations have negative trend so it is seen that the rainfall is decreasing all over the country in the 51 years study period. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Board Bazar, Gazipur, Bangladesh en_US
dc.subject Climate change, rainfall trend, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slope en_US
dc.title Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Trend and Variability Due to Climate Change in Bangladesh en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search IUT Repository


Advanced Search

Browse

My Account

Statistics